At moments like these, we need courage and decisiveness, but also wisdom. That includes caution regarding use of words. This is not the Third World War. At the same time, it is already a lot more serious than the Soviet invasions of Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968. The wars in the former Yugoslavia in the nineties were horrific, but the international ramifications were not on the same scale. In 1956, there were brave resistance fighters in Budapest, but Ukraine is an entire, independent state with an army and a people, who both say: resistance is now their destiny. If they don't keep resisting, there will be a bad occupation. If they do, this could be the biggest war in Europe since 1945.

Overwhelming military force is ranged against them; well trained and well equipped conventional forces, plus 6,000 nuclear weapons. Russia is now the world’s largest rogue state. It is led by a President, who – judging by his hysterical tirades – has abandoned all rational thought, something that tends to happen with isolated dictators sooner or later. To be perfectly clear: when he said in his declaration of war that anyone, “who would consider interfering from outside,” would suffer consequences “greater than any you have faced in history” – he was threatening nuclear war.

First we must ensure the defence of every centimetre of NATO territory, especially at the borders with Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, against all possible forms of incursion, including cyber and hybrid attacks. For seventy years, the security of the whole of Western Europe has ultimately hung on the credibility of the promise of “one for all and all for one“, laid down in Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Whether we like it or not, London’s long-term security is now inextricably linked with that of Narva in Estonia, Berlin’s with that of Białystok in Poland, Rome’s with that of Cluj-Napoca in Romania. 

Secondly, we must support Ukraine in every possible way short of crossing the threshold that would bring the West into open war with Russia. The limited extent of our response to Russia will unavoidably greatly disappoint all the Ukrainians who have decided to stay and fight. In e-mails from Ukrainian friends, for example, they ask for a no-fly zone where Russian planes would be barred from Ukrainian airspace. NATO will not do that. Like the Czechs in 1938, the Polish in 1945 and the Hungarians in 1956, Ukrainians will say: “Dear fellow Europeans, you abandoned and betrayed us.”

However, there are still other things we could do. Not only can the Western democracies that rightly deliver weapons, communication technology etc. continue to do that. Over the medium term, we can help the people using the proven techniques of civil resistance against Russian occupation and every attempt to install a puppet government. We must also be ready to help the many Ukrainians who will flee to the West.

Thirdly, the sanctions against Russia should be stepped up. Besides nation-wide economic measures, Russians connected in any way with the regime should be expelled. Putin has prepared for sanctions with a war chest in excess of 600 billion dollars and one hand on Europe’s gas mains. So, it will take time before sanctions really start to bite.

Ultimately, the Russians themselves need to be the ones who say: “Enough. Not in our name.” Many of them, including Nobel Peace Prize winner Dmitry Muratov, have already expressed their abhorrence of this war. Or read the moving report by Ukrainian journalist Natalia Gumanjuk about a Russian journalist crying to her over the phone asking for forgiveness, while the Russian tanks rolled in. The abhorrence will only grow as the corpses of young Russian men return in body bags – and when the consequences for Russia’s economy and reputation become apparent at home. Russians will be the first and last victims of Vladimir Putin.

That takes me to a last and vital point. We must be ready for a long struggle. It will take years, probably decades even, to come to terms with the consequences of 24 February 2022. The short-term prospects for Ukraine look dire. But at the same time I am reminded of the wonderful title of a book about the Hungarian revolution of 1956: “The victory of a defeat“. Almost everyone in the West has now understood that Ukraine is a European state being attacked and dismembered by a dictator. Kyiv was recently a city full of journalists from all over the world. This experience will shape their view of Ukraine for ever. During the years following the Cold War, the years when our illusions reigned, we had forgotten how nations become established in the mental map of Europe: with blood, sweat and tears.